Bhubaneswar , September 16: As the monsoon slowly retreats from the Indian subcontinent, experts are raising alarms over a brewing threat in the Bay of Bengal — a post-monsoon cyclone that could impact Odisha after October 15. The conditions, once again, are aligning ominously, and at the center of this growing concern is the ongoing La Niña event in the Pacific Ocean.
October–November: Odisha’s Most Vulnerable Season
Odisha’s tryst with cyclones during the post-monsoon months is a tragic pattern that repeats itself. From the catastrophic 1999 Super Cyclone to more recent storms like Phailin (2013), Titli (2018), Fani (2019), and Yaas (2021), the October–November window remains a season of high alert for the eastern coast of India.
With the southwest monsoon currently withdrawing, meteorologists predict that the Bay of Bengal could once again become a fertile ground for cyclone formation — especially after mid-October, when oceanic and atmospheric conditions are most favorable.
Why Is This Year Different? The La Niña Effect
The primary concern this year is the continued presence of La Niña, a global climate pattern that has significant effects on the Indian Ocean and Bay of Bengal.
“La Niña conditions lead to cooler-than-normal sea temperatures in the central Pacific, but paradoxically, they also create warmer conditions in the western Pacific and Indian Ocean, including the Bay of Bengal,” explained a senior scientist from the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD).
This temperature imbalance fuels instability in the atmosphere — particularly over the Andaman Sea and eastern Bay of Bengal, where sea surface temperatures are currently hovering around 31°C or higher, well above the threshold needed for cyclone formation.
How La Niña Triggers Cyclonic Conditions
During La Niña:
- Sea surface temperatures in the Bay of Bengal remain abnormally high, feeding cyclonic systems with energy.
- The upper and lower atmosphere winds often align in direction and speed, reducing wind shear, which helps a low-pressure system intensify quickly.
- Weather disturbances originating from the western Pacific or South China Sea can enter the Bay of Bengal, acting as seeds for cyclone development.
- The retreat of the southwest monsoon, followed closely by the arrival of the northeast monsoon, creates low-pressure convergence zones, enhancing the cyclone risk.
Experts Warn: “Be Prepared, Not Panicked”
While no cyclone has been officially named yet, all indicators — rising ocean temperatures, atmospheric readiness, and La Niña conditions — suggest a high likelihood of cyclonic activity post-October 15.
Disaster preparedness officials in Odisha are already reviewing evacuation plans, shelter readiness, and early warning systems. “We’ve seen this pattern before. The science is clear. This is not about fear, it’s about preparation,” said a senior official from the Special Relief Commissioner’s office.
Coastal Communities Must Stay Alert
People living in coastal and low-lying areas — especially fishermen and farmers — are urged to follow IMD advisories closely and avoid venturing into the sea once alerts are issued.
The government is also ramping up awareness campaigns across villages and towns to ensure that communities are not caught off-guard if a cyclone does develop.
Looking Ahead: A New Climate Normal?
Scientists are concerned that climate change is amplifying the intensity and unpredictability of cyclones in the Bay of Bengal. With La Niña expected to continue until December, the current season may just be part of a longer, more turbulent post-monsoon pattern.
As Odisha enters the critical cyclone window after October 15, vigilance and early action will be key. The ocean may be quiet today, but if history — and science — are any indication, the calm may not last for long.